A long-time oil trader was surprised by President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran, saying it was the only way to change global crude oil markets significantly.
The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran last Saturday, during which Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many top officials were killed.
Over 1,000 Iranians were killed, including more than 175 people, mostly young girls, in an airstrike on a girls’ elementary school. U.S. officials say the American military was responsible for those deaths.
Iran responded by attacking U.S. military bases in the region, including one in Kuwait where six U.S. soldiers were killed.
Also, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. This strait is very important for global trade. In 2025, 31% of all oil shipped by sea passed through it. As a result, oil prices have gone up a lot. In just one week, U.S. crude oil prices rose by 35%, which is the biggest jump since 1983.
On Friday’s All In on MS NOW, Chris Hayes talked to Dan Dicker, a longtime energy trader.
“Oil prices have been low,” Dicker said.
“Even after the pandemic, when everything was wild, prices for eggs and milk went up, but oil prices didn’t go up that much. They went up a little, yes. But for the past three years, I’ve been sitting around doing nothing because there’s been a lot of oil supply and prices have stayed mostly flat.”
Dicker said that the only way to change that situation was to start a war with Iran.
And Trump has done that. This was the one thing that was going right for the economy that Trump could point to and say, “I’m keeping gas prices low,” whether it was his fault or not. We know it’s not. But this was the only way to mess it up—and he found it.
The main route for most of the oil from Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., and Qatar goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranians have controlled this choke point for 35 years. It’s not like this is a new threat that no one knew about. The Iranians have always had the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz.
During his State of the Union speech on February 24, Trump boasted about low gas prices.
At that time, the average price for a gallon of gas was $2.95. On Friday, it was $3.32.
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