With just one week remaining before the 2026 midterm elections, Donald Trump and Republicans have received another troubling warning about their chances of holding Congress.
And this time, the warning is coming from Fox News.
In its final Power Rankings update, released Tuesday, the network shifted 22 congressional races toward Democrats — including 19 House contests and three Senate races — as the political environment continues to deteriorate for the Republican Party.
The changes are particularly significant because Fox News now forecasts Democrats as the favorites to win control of the House of Representatives.
According to the network’s latest analysis, Democrats are favored in at least 223 House districts, five more than the 218 seats required for a majority.
Republicans, meanwhile, have just 195 seats in their column.
And those numbers represent only the starting point of Fox’s forecast.
If Democrats win most of the competitive toss-up districts, the network says they could finish with approximately 240 seats. An exceptionally strong Democratic performance, including victories in districts currently leaning Republican, could push that number as high as 252.
Those are potential election outcomes, not guaranteed results. But the movement is unmistakable.
Fox News moved 19 House races toward Democrats in its latest update, reflecting changes in polling, candidate strength and growing Republican vulnerability in districts that were previously considered safer.
The Senate picture is more complicated, but the new ratings contain another major development for Democrats.
In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s race against Republican incumbent Jon Husted has moved from Toss-up to Lean Democrat.
That shift follows a Fox News poll showing Brown leading Husted by five percentage points, 52% to 47%.
Brown, who previously served three terms in the Senate, is attempting a political comeback in a state that has increasingly favored Republicans in presidential elections.
His improved standing represents one of the most encouraging developments for Democrats hoping to expand their path to a Senate majority.
Fox also moved the South Carolina Senate contest between Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews and Republican Senator Darline Graham from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
That does not make Andrews the favorite. It does, however, indicate that a race once considered relatively comfortable for Republicans has become more competitive.
In Mississippi, Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith’s contest against Democratic challenger Scott Colom has shifted from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Mississippi remains a difficult state for Democrats, but the downgrade is notable in a state where Republicans would ordinarily expect a relatively straightforward victory.
Together, the three changes suggest that Democratic opportunities are expanding beyond the handful of states traditionally considered the most competitive.
Still, control of the Senate remains uncertain.
Fox News currently favors Democrats in 48 Senate seats and Republicans in 47, with the remaining contests capable of determining the majority.
Because the vice president breaks a 50–50 tie, Republicans could retain control with 50 seats, while Democrats would need 51.
That makes the Senate a considerably more difficult target than the House.
For Trump, the latest forecast arrives at an especially uncomfortable moment.
Republicans are approaching Election Day amid voter frustration over the economy, inflation and the administration’s policies.
Fox’s own analysis points to growing Democratic strength among independent voters, rural voters and Hispanic voters who have become increasingly dissatisfied with Republicans.
The network also cited polling showing Democrats with a substantial national advantage in congressional voting preferences.
That environment has made the House particularly challenging for Republicans to defend.
The contrast with earlier expectations is striking.
At the beginning of October, Fox’s Power Rankings placed Democrats ahead in 215 House districts, with Republicans favored in 201.
Now, the Democratic column has grown to 223 while the Republican column has fallen to 195.
That shift matters because Democrats no longer need to sweep the closest races to reach a majority under the network’s forecast.
Instead, Republicans would need a significant polling miss or an unexpected late shift in voter behavior to preserve their House majority.
There is an important distinction, however, between an election forecast and an actual election result.
A race moving from Toss-up to Lean Democrat does not mean the Democrat has won. Likewise, a Republican district moving into a more competitive category does not guarantee that it will flip.
Turnout, undecided voters and late developments can still change the outcome.
But with Election Day approaching, the direction of Fox News’ final ratings offers Democrats substantial encouragement.
The network is not declaring a Democratic sweep of Congress.
It is, however, forecasting a House majority for Democrats while showing that the Republican advantage in several Senate contests has weakened.
And for a president who has spent the closing days of the campaign trying to energize Republican voters, the message from Fox News is difficult to ignore.
Twenty-two congressional races have moved toward Democrats.
The House is increasingly within their reach.
And the final week of the campaign now begins with Republicans facing a political map that looks considerably more difficult than it did just weeks ago.
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