President Donald Trump’s current approach to dealing with Iran is pushing him into a “trap” he created himself, according to Robert Pape, a terrorism expert and legal scholar, during a segment on CNN on Wednesday morning.
This comes as many Republicans are becoming worried and split about whether it’s morally right or politically smart to follow Trump’s plans for Iran.
“Your take on this has been very, very interesting, but let’s start here,” said anchor Kate Bolduan, pointing to Pape’s recent Substack post titled “The Escalation Trap.”
“You say the United States is now entering the most dangerous part of this military campaign. Can you explain why?”
“Thanks for having me on, Kate,” Pape replied. “
For 30 years, I’ve studied air power and escalation. I’ve taught for the U.S. Air Force for 20 years. I’ve even modeled what would happen if we bombed Iran, targeting places like Fordow and Natanz, and trying to change the government there.”
The main point, Pape explained, is that “President Trump is facing the weight of history.
For more than 100 years, countries have tried to overthrow governments using air power alone — and it has never worked, not even once.”
“We are now about to enter the most dangerous part of what I call the escalation trap,” Pape said. “
At first, using precision weapons — which work well on a tactical level — can seem like a success. You see, we killed the Supreme Leader. But this leads to bigger problems, and we get pulled deeper into the conflict than we intended. We kept saying we wouldn’t go further, but we’re about to do exactly that in the next week or two.”
In short, he said, “This will be the most dangerous moment of the crisis.”
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